Systematic Trading research and development, with a flavour of Trend Following
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Trend Following Wizards – April 2012

May 18th, 2012 · Trend Following, Trend Following Wizards

A small overall bounce with some mixed results for this month’s edition of the Trend Following Wizards report. Overall, the composite performance is still in the red with over two third of the list posting negative YTD figures.
Results below:

Organisation / Fund Return YTD * AUM **
Abraham Trading1
1.69%
-5.16%
$484M
Altis Partners2
0.59%
-1.21%
$1,307M
Aspect Capital3
0.88%
1.63%
$6,827M
Beach Horizon4
-0.22%
-7.96%
$890M
BlueTrend5
3.71%
0.67%
$14,021M
Campbell & Company6
0.80%
3.63%
$400M
Chesapeake Capital7
2.17%
-2.03%
$794M
Clarke Capital8
0.89%
3.16%
$34M
Drury Capital9
-0.25%
8.00%
$407M
Dunn Capital10
2.77%
-8.15%
$309M
Eckhardt Trading11
1.71%
2.23%
$490M
EMC Capital12
0.63%
4.27%
$101M
Graham Capital13
0.61%
2.06%
$3,498M
Hawksbill Capital14
-0.15%
-2.23%
$97M
Hyman Beck & Co.15
-1.85%
-8.07%
$427M
JWH & Co.16
-1.23%
-18.26%
$109M
Man AHL Diversified17
-0.25%
-3.66%
$15,000M
Mark J. Walsh & Co.18
0.44%
-5.66%
$114M
Millburn Ridgefield19
1.42%
-5.12%
$889M
Rabar Market Research20
-0.32%
-1.76%
$258M
Saxon Investment21
-0.38%
-0.40%
$191M
Sunrise Capital22
-1.09%
-2.64%
$635M
Tactical Investment Mgt23
0.99%
-6.24%
$102M
Transtrend24
0.55%
3.07%
$7,534M
Winton Capital25
0.12%
-0.74%
$28,840M
Summary Figures***
0.57%
-2.02%
$83,758M

 

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Notes

* YTD: Year-To-Date performance.
** AUM: Assets Under Management for the program reported here (not total firm AUM)
*** The summary numbers are the mean of the monthly return and the mean of the YTD, with the total sum of AUM, across all managers
 
Note that the figures referenced in the performance table are not provided directly by any of the funds/CTAs featured in this report, but are sourced from other publications such as hedge fund/CTA websites and databases.
 
1 – Abraham Trading was founded by Salem Abraham, after he was introduced to Managed Futures and Trend Following by Jerry Parker. He is considered as a “”second-generation”" Turtle.
Program tracked: Diversified Program.

2 – Altis Partners started trading in 2001 and now manage over a $1B with their Altis Global Futures Portfolio. The figures referenced in the performance table are not provided by Altis Partners and no reliance should be taken as to their accuracy, and as a consequence the figures may not be in accordance with any CFTC / NFA performance reporting requirements.
Program tracked: Global Futures Portfolio.

3 – The four founders of Aspect (Eugene Lambert, Anthony Todd, Michael Adam and Martin Lueck) were significant members of one of the most succesful funds in managed futures – AHL (Adam, Harding and Lueck).
Program tracked: Aspect Capital Diversified Program.

4 – Beach Horizon was created as a fully automated trend following subsidiary of Beach Capital Mgt, founded by David Beach. Two of the founders of Beach Horizon had early involvement in AHL.
Program Tracked: Managed Account.

5 – BlueTrend, from BlueCrest Capital, is one of the largest Trend Following funds – headed by Ms. Leda Braga.
Program tracked: BlueTrend Fund Limited.

6 – Campbell & Company is one of the oldest Trend Following firms, operating for around 4 decades.
Program tracked: Global Diversified Large.

7 – Chesapeake Capital was founded by Jerry Parker, a former Turtle.
Program tracked: Diversified Program.

8 – Clarke Capital was founded by Michael Clarke in 1993.
Program tracked: Millenium Program.

9 – Drury Capital, Inc., was founded in Illinois in 1992 by Bernard Drury.
Program tracked: Diversified Trend-Following.

10 – Dunn Capital was founded by Bill Dunn.
Program tracked: World Monetary and Agriculture (WMA).

11 – Eckhardt Trading is the firm managed by William Eckhardt, who co-led the Turtle experiment with Richard Dennis.
Program tracked: Standard Program.

12 – EMC Capital was founded by Liz Cheval, a former Turtle.
Program tracked: EMC Classic Program.

13 – Graham Capital was founded in 1994 by Ken Tropin, previously a Director of JWH.
Program tracked: K4-D10.

14 – Hawksbill Capital was founded by Tom Shanks, a former Turtle.
Program tracked: Global Diversified Program.

15 – Hyman Beck & Co. main principals are Alexander Hyman and Carl Beck.
Program tracked: Global Portfolio.

16 – JWH & Co. was founded by John W. Henry, now also owner of the Boston Red Sox.
Program tracked: Global Analytics.

17 – Originally ED & F Man, a commodities broker business founded in 1783. Man became a succesful CTA starting in 1983, when partnering with Larry Hite’s Mint Investments. Subsequently Man gradually acquirs AHL (1989-1994) to form Man AHL: the systematic trading division of the Man group.
Program tracked: Man AHL (USA) Diversified Managed Account Program.

18 – Mark J. Walsh was not an official Turtle but trained and worked closely with Richard Dennis before starting his own fund management business.
Program tracked: Standard Program.

19 – Millburn Ridgefield have been trading Trend Following models since the early 1970′s.
Program tracked: Diversified Program.

20 – Rabar Market Research is the company of Paul Rabar, a former Turtle.
Program tracked: Diversified Program.

21 – Saxon Investment was founded by Howard Seidler, a former Turtle.
Program tracked: Aggressive Diversified Program.

22 – Sunrise Capital is a CTA based in San Diego. Founded in 1980 by Gary Davis, it merged in 1995 with Commodity Commodity Monitors, Inc., founded by Rick Slaughter in 1977.
Program tracked: Expanded Diversified Program.

23 – Tactical Investment Management was founded by David Druz, student of Ed Seykota.
Program tracked: Institutional Commodity Program.

24 – Transtrend is a Trend follower CTA based in Netherlands.
Program tracked: DTP – Enhanced Risk (USD).

25 – Winton Capital is a London-based CTA founded by Dave Harding (also co-founder of AHL).
Program tracked: Diversified Program.

 
 
These are the top CTAs/Managed Futures funds in the Trend Following space with:

  • Decades of successful track records (some managers approaching half a century such as Millburn or Campbell, founded in 1971 and 1972 respectively, with other pioneers following suit a few years later: Sunrise, John W Henry, Dunn, etc.)
  • Legendary stories and experience: the most famous of them being the Turtle Traders experiment led by Richard Dennis in the eighties. Nearly a third of the list originate from or were associated with the Turtles (Liz Cheval, Jerry Parker, Bill Eckhardt and more – check the foot notes for details). Also in the list is David Druz, an early “disciple” of computerized trend following pioneer Ed Seykota.
  • Billions of Assets under management: the list captures most if not all of the top Trend Following managers in terms of AUM, including the “super-large” that are Winton, Man AHL, BlueTrend or Transtrend. Collectively, the Trend Following Wizards manage close to $100 Billion.

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State of Trend Following in April

May 3rd, 2012 · the State of Trend Following, Trend Following

State of TF
Not a very eventful report for this month and due to a fairly busy schedule this week, I will keep this short. Please find the report just below.

Detailed Results

The figures for the month are: [Read more →]

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Trend Following Wizards: New Top 25 – March’12

April 18th, 2012 · Trend Following, Trend Following Wizards

I have been hinting at a review of the list of Trend Following Wizards for a few months. Well it’s here! [Read more →]

→ 8 CommentsTags: ·

State of Trend Following in March

April 3rd, 2012 · the State of Trend Following, Trend Following

State of TF
 
As you can see more in details below, March was relatively flat for the State of Trend Following index, never going over +/- 2%, to finish the month slightly in the red and contribute some more to the current YTD loss.

Please check below for more details. [Read more →]

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Trend Following Wizards – February 2012

March 19th, 2012 · Trend Following, Trend Following Wizards

Similarly to the State of Trend Following (yet again), the “Wizards index” has bounced back from the “January low”, but not enough to get out of the “red zone”, with the YTD performance still being negative.

Please find below the full table: [Read more →]

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Monthly vs. Daily Trading – updated

March 13th, 2012 · Backtest, Equities, Futures, Strategies

EndofMonth CraftyGoat

2011 offered challenging market conditions for trend followers (as illustrated by both the State of Trend Following and the Trend Following Wizards reports). The second half of the year in particular threw a few “curve balls”, in the form of wild volatile moves with inter-market correlations spiking up.

With this backdrop, I wanted to revisit the daily vs. monthly trading comparison run a bit over a year ago, to check the impact of these volatile moves against a system trading on a monthly basis (2008 had proven “costly” to the monthly trader; would 2011 be similar?).

DAILY V. MONTHLY GOLDEN CROSS

As a reminder, in that post, I compared two versions of a moving average cross-over system (Golden Cross) tested on daily data. Both versions generated the same trading signals, but the first instance executed signals on a daily basis (as new signals were generated) while the second instance executed them at the end of the month.

The results did show that there was little difference in the monthly version versus the daily one, with alternating periods of under-performance and over-performance; the daily version ultimately coming out on top.

Re-running the test with updated data (until the end of last month) still gives similar results: [Read more →]

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State of Trend Following in February

March 5th, 2012 · the State of Trend Following, Trend Following

State of TF
 
A moderate February bounce reduces the YTD losses on the index. Not enough to bring the index back in the black.

The results also show a fairly clear divide in the results per system timeframe.

Please check below for more details. [Read more →]

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Trend Following Wizards – January 2012

February 20th, 2012 · Trend Following, Trend Following Wizards

It took a bit longer than expected to retrieve the performance updates for the Trend Following Wizards (all bar one) for this first report of 2012; but here it is.

I am also reviewing its contents and will likely make adjustments to the list in 2012, so that it resembles more a “legendary traders’ league” than it does now (which was the initial goal of the report) – and also to remove some “late reporters” so that the report can be published earlier in the month.

Back to January 2012: the results are mixed but negative on average. These go in the same direction as the results of the State of Trend Following report for last month, which had surprised quite a few readers, commenting back on that post. Seems like these two reports are well correlated to each other. Something that would be interesting to check in a further post.

Please find below the full results:
[Read more →]

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State of Trend Following in January

February 7th, 2012 · the State of Trend Following, Trend Following

State of TF
 

Red and a bit late.

This is how this State of Trend Following report is served this month, for the first edition of 2012. The negative momentum from 2011 seems to have carried over in the new year.

One small modification to note regarding the report and its index: I have cut down on the leverage of the underlying systems to reduce the overall volatility (see appendix note for more details).

Please check below for more details. [Read more →]

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Trend Following Wizards – December 2011

January 18th, 2012 · Trend Following, Trend Following Wizards

This report closes the year 2011 for the Trend Following Wizards, which ended up – not so surprisingly – on the negative side.

The performance for December was virtually nil, leaving the composite index at -7.5% for the year. Apart from a handful of managers, most funds were in the red for 2011.

Interestingly, the funds “jockeying” for top position have quite different profiles, between “old-school” Dunn Capital, “new generation, sophisticated” Winton Capital and former Turtle Saxon Investment, who stopped trading in the last few months.

Please find below the full results:
[Read more →]

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State of Trend Following in 2011

January 3rd, 2012 · the State of Trend Following, Trend Following

State of TF
 

Happy New Year to all readers of the blog! May 2012 bring you success and happiness in your trading (and other) endeavours.

Looking back at the year just past, performance was just “not there” for Trend Following in general in 2011. A minor gain in December for the State of Trend Following index did not manage to lift the index from the lows it was experiencing since October. Ultimately, the volatility experienced all year weighed down the index to push it in the red.

It was probably a case of good bet/losing year; and hopefully 2012 marks a return to rewarding the “good bets” we place in the markets.

Without further ado, please check below for more details. [Read more →]

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Trend Following Wizards – November 2011

December 19th, 2011 · Trend Following, Trend Following Wizards

Last report before the year comes to a close, and it seems that 2011 will end in the red for the Wizards.

November was marginally positive, leaving the YTD result well anchored in negative territory. Please find the detailed results below:

[Read more →]

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State of Trend Following in November

December 5th, 2011 · the State of Trend Following, Trend Following

State of TF
 
A wide disparity in the individual system returns in this month’s edition of the State of Trend Following report, but globally a slightly positive month for the report index. This does not change the YTD situation very much, still deep in the red. Unless a dramatic Christmas reversal occurs, 2011 will most likely be negative for Trend Following

Please check below for more details: [Read more →]

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Trend Following Wizards – October

November 17th, 2011 · Trend Following, Trend Following Wizards

A strong negative return for the month, taking the average YTD return further in the red – with a few funds now in negative double-digit territory.

Not a good October for the Trend Following Wizards.

The old adage “Sell in May and go away [, stay away till St. Leger Day]” rings true for Trend Followers this year. Since the month of May, five out of the last six have been losing months.

We are now past Halloween (and St Leger Stakes) — does this mean that the next 6 months will provide nice trending markets for the Wizards? Only time will tell.

Please find the results as of end October 2011 below: [Read more →]

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State of Trend Following Report in Oct-11

November 7th, 2011 · the State of Trend Following, Trend Following

State of TF
 
October has not been kind to Trend Followers. If the debacle at MF Global was not enough, it also seems that the markets handed a “double whammy” with a strong down month from a performance point of view. The index is now clearly back in the red for 2011.

Please check below for more details:

Detailed Results

[Read more →]

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Trend Following Wizards in September ’11

October 18th, 2011 · Trend Following, Trend Following Wizards

Here is another Trend Following Wizard report, which comes with some volatility again – mostly on the down side.
The average return for September is -1.31%, with the YTD reading about equal at -1.54%.

Unlike in 2008, Trend Following Wizards did not seem to be able to capitalize on the “crisis mode” seen in the markets in the last quarter, which was quite reminiscent of the worst periods of the credit crunch or GFC (Global Financial Crisis). Indeed, hedge funds reportedly just had one of their worst quarters on record and the Wizards did not seem to buck the trend as much as they did three years ago.

I have also changed a few minor things in the report this month.
Mainly, the Trend Following Wizards welcome two new additions – from Canada – this month: Auspice Capital and Acorn Global Investments.
I have also updated a couple of Wizards with the actual program being tracked, mostly to reflect program termination (JWH’s historical Financials and Metals portfolio does not seem to get updated any more for instance), or for re-aligning to the “main” program for the CTA (as per AUM). Details of all programs tracked can be found in the (updated) footnotes.

Finally, I realise that this blog has been on the “quiet side” lately, staying updated mostly with these monthly reports (TF Wizards and State of TF). This is mostly due to being busy on other projects and a general re-organisation on my side. I intend to get back to more regular posting at some point in the near-future.

In the mean time I leave you with this Managed Futures can save your tail article (rather topical), linked to from new Wizard Auspice’s September commentary letter.

Below are the full results for the Wizards as of September 2011:
[Read more →]

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State of Trend Following Report – September ’11

October 3rd, 2011 · the State of Trend Following, Trend Following

State of TF
 
This month of September has been quite similar to that of August, in terms of the increased nervousness of financial markets in general. In parallel, the state of Trend Following also shows characteristics similar to that of last month: strong but volatile returns. The index is now in the black for the year. Please check below for more details:

Detailed Results

[Read more →]

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Trend Following Wizards in August ’11

September 19th, 2011 · Trend Following Wizards

This month’s report comes a bit later and less complete than usual. Some of the websites used to retrieve the performance figures seemed to have had some delays or technical problems, and as a result three of the usually tracked Wizards have missing performance results.

The rest of the pack shows varying levels of performance in what was a volatile month.

Please find below the individual results for August 2011, showing a slight negative trend collectively, both for the year and the month: [Read more →]

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State of Trend Following in August

September 5th, 2011 · the State of Trend Following

State of TF
 
August – What a volatile month! Instead of the more usual quiet Summer market lull, markets got really nervous.

And this also shows in the results of the State of Trend Following – albeit with a positive outcome, completely opposite to “traditional investments”.

Let’s cut to the chase with this month’s results:
August return: +13.46%
YTD return: -6.71%

Despite a strong month, the report is still in the red for the year. Below are the more details results:
[Read more →]

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Summer Reading by Covel – Take II: The Little Book of Trading

August 29th, 2011 · Books

Little Book of Trading

Trend Following Strategy for Big Winnings is the subtitle of Michael Covel’s latest book (link on Amazon), an addition to the “Little Book of…” series (“Trading” in this instance).

I find it quite surprising for an author to come out with two books roughly at the same time but this book is fairly different from the recent Trend Commandments.

Similarly, this is an easy, short read – good for one sitting on the beach or by the pool, as the cliche has it.
And once again, one should not expect an actual specific strategy per se, in the form of a ready-to-be-traded system, delivered in the book – for this, a better place would probably be the Trading Blox forums or even this humble blog (start with the State of Trend Following report, which uses and points to several basic Trend Following systems provided by Trading Blox). Unless you prefer to purchase the author’s course…

No, this book is mostly about inspiration from successful (Trend Following) stories. Whereas Trend Commandments is all about “principles over personalities”, this latest Covel instalment revolves around some famous Trend Following personalities. And successful stories are one of the best ways to get inspiration and motivation, in my opinion. I actually felt this was one aspect missing from Trend Commandments, especially compared with the original Trend Following book (which contains a variety of philosophy, trading aspects, successful stories, performance charts, trader insights, etc.).

It seems that Covel decided to split out [Read more →]

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